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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
UBS forecasts elevated S&P 500 volatility in 2025, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, shifting policy rates, and geopolitical risks. With government stimulus waning, slower nominal growth is expected, particularly in China and the US, leading to intermittent volatility spikes.The potential for significant policy changes and escalating tariff tensions under the current administration adds unpredictability. UBS anticipates the key measure of market volatility to average around 20% in 2025, with volatility-of-volatility exceeding 110%, as earnings dispersion narrows and stock correlations rise.
UBS forecasts elevated S&P 500 volatility in 2025, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, policy shifts, and geopolitical risks. With government stimulus waning, slower nominal growth is expected, particularly in China and the US, leading to intermittent volatility spikes linked to growth data.The firm anticipates the volatility index to average around 20%, with volatility-of-volatility exceeding 110%. Additionally, concerns over tech earnings and potential tariff tensions could further complicate the economic landscape, particularly affecting European equities and US markets.
UBS forecasts nearly 9% downside risk for European stocks by the end of 2025, projecting the Stoxx 600 index to fall to 470 due to weak earnings and macroeconomic challenges. The bank anticipates a 5% contraction in earnings per share next year, with sectors like autos and luxury goods facing pressure from China's economic slowdown. Defensive sectors such as utilities and renewables are favored, while cyclical sectors like semiconductors and energy are expected to struggle.
Gerry Fowler
People
11:14 07.01.2025
11:14 07.01.2025
12:54 04.12.2024
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